The True Cost of Rake in Heads-Up Poker

Rake is the single biggest consistent expense in poker. It's discussed endlessly in vague terms — players know it's expensive, but rarely quantify exactly how expensive. This article attempts to measure rake precisely using real hand history data, and to compare the true cost of rake between Heads-Up No Limit Hold'em and Pot Limit Omaha.

The results are striking. At typical online rake structures, a PLO player pays roughly double the rake of an NL player at the same stakes. More importantly, the gap widens dramatically as rake caps increase — meaning site and stake selection matters enormously.

How Rake Works

Online poker rooms take a percentage of each pot as rake, subject to a maximum cap. Most sites operate a 'no flop no drop' policy — rake is only taken from pots that reach the flop. The rake structure has two key variables:

• Rake percentage — typically 5% of the pot
• Rake cap — the maximum rake taken from any single pot (e.g. $1.50)

The cap is crucial. Expressed in big blinds, the same dollar cap becomes cheaper at higher stakes. A $1.50 cap at 200NL ($2 BB) equals 0.75bb, but at 500NL ($5 BB) it equals only 0.30bb. This means rake as a proportion of stakes actually decreases as you move up — one of many incentives to play higher stakes.

Methodology

We exported hand histories from two sites — iPoker and CoinPoker — covering approximately 10,000 HU PLO hands and 10,000 HU NL hands across stakes from 100NL to 500NL. A custom parser was built to classify each hand by type (no-flop, limp, iso, SRP, 3bet, 4bet), measure the full distribution of pot sizes for each hand type, and calculate weighted average rake at any cap level using these real distributions.

Using pot size distributions rather than simple averages is critical. Because rake is capped, a hand ending at 8bb and a hand ending at 80bb pay very different amounts of rake even though both are technically 'SRP' hands.

Hand Type Frequencies: NL vs PLO

The first major difference between NL and PLO is simply how often each hand type occurs. NL players fold preflop far more frequently, which directly reduces rake since no-flop hands pay nothing.

NL folds preflop in 50.7% of hands versus 35.5% in PLO. This alone accounts for a significant portion of the rake difference — nearly 15% more hands in PLO reach the flop and become eligible for rake. PLO also has more SRP and 3bet pots as a proportion of total hands, further increasing rake exposure.

Pot Size Distributions

Single Raised Pots (SRP)

In SRP hands, the starting pot after preflop action is 6bb in PLO versus roughly 4–5bb in NL. But the distributions diverge dramatically post-flop.

In NL, 47% of SRP hands end with a pot of 0–5bb — meaning the BB folded on the flop to a cbet and the pot barely grew. In PLO, this bucket is essentially empty (0.7%). PLO hands have more equity and more draws, so players continue far more frequently.

3bet Pots

The difference is even more dramatic in 3bet pots.

In NL, 45% of 3bet pot hands end with a pot of just 5–10bb. In PLO, this is virtually impossible since the preflop pot alone is 18bb. PLO players also hate folding any draw or pair for one bet, so 3bet pots in PLO spread widely into large pots.

The Rake Numbers

Using the real pot size distributions and hand type frequencies measured above, we can calculate total rake paid at any cap level. Note: poker tracking software such as PT4 typically shows 'rake paid by hero' which is approximately half these figures, since each player pays rake on pots they win.

At a 0.75bb cap ($1.50 at 200NL), PLO pays 34bb/100 versus NL's 19bb/100 — roughly double. The gap widens at higher caps because PLO builds bigger pots more frequently. At a 3bb cap, PLO players pay nearly 30bb more in rake than NL players.

Implications

Winrate Requirements

A solid winning HU PLO regular at 200NL might achieve a winrate of 10–20bb/100. At a typical $1.50 rake cap (0.75bb), the rake they are paying is 17bb/100 (their share of the 34bb total). This means rake is consuming a significant multiple of their winrate — in many cases making them a losing player after rake, before rakeback is factored in.

Cap Structure Matters More Than Rake Percentage

The data shows that the rake cap is far more important than the rake percentage for medium/high-stakes PLO. At a 0.10bb cap, NL and PLO pay almost identical rake — 4.93 vs 6.45 bb/100. The gap only emerges as the cap increases.

This means a site offering 5% rake with a $1 cap is dramatically cheaper for PLO than a site offering 4% rake with a $3 cap — even though the headline percentage looks better on the latter.

Stake and Site Selection

Moving up in stakes reduces rake in bb terms, since the same dollar cap represents fewer big blinds. A player at 500NL PLO with a $1.50 cap is paying 0.30bb per pot versus 0.75bb at 200NL — a 60% reduction in rake.

Site selection based on rake cap structure rather than headline rake percentage is advisable, particularly for PLO players. The difference between a $1.50 and $3 cap at 200NL PLO is approximately 11bb/100 in total rake — far exceeding most players' winrates.

Conclusion

Rake is the largest consistent expense in heads-up poker, and its true cost is substantially higher than most players appreciate. Our analysis shows:

• PLO players pay approximately double the rake of NL players at the same stakes and cap structure
• The gap is driven by two factors: PLO players see the flop more often, and PLO pots grow larger when they do
• Rake cap structure is more important than rake percentage — especially for PLO
• Moving up in stakes significantly reduces rake in bb terms at the same dollar cap

Understanding rake is not just an academic exercise. Choosing where to play — and getting the best rakeback deal you can — is at least as important as how you play.